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Researchers predict “above average” Atlantic hurricane season

Forecast calls for three to six major hurricanes.

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Researchers at the Climate Prediction Center are calling for an “above average” season, with between three to six major hurricanes packing winds of 111 miles per hour or higher. Their forecast also predicts 12 to 18 named storms–those with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher, roughly half of which have the potential to develop into hurricanes.

An average season sees 11 named storms, six hurricanes and only two major hurricanes.

Higher sea temperatures and lingering effects of an El Nina system are behind the active forecast, according to the center’s outlook, released May 19. Surface temperatures–where storms often form–are two degrees warmer than normal this year. And although La Nina should dissipate by late spring, its effects on wind shear will remain well into hurricane season.

In 2010, “winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” Jane Lubchenco, NOAA administrator, said in a statement accompanying the forecast. “However we can’t count on luck to get us through this season.”

The forecast does not predict when or where storms will hit.