AIR Worldwide launches crop hail model for Canada

The new tool provides information for this risk in nine provinces

AIR Worldwide has produced a crop hail risk model for Canada that includes 10,000 simulations of potential hail activity.

The catastrophe risk modeling company’s new tool is designed to provide a probabilistic view of potential hail activity and the risk of loss for the coming season to crop hail contracts in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, and Saskatchewan.

The model considers the impacts hail can have on various types of crops, including barley, canola, corn, flax, lentil, oats, pea, potato, soybean, and wheat, which are each explicitly modeled. Losses to all other Canadian crops are modeled implicitly.

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“While severe thunderstorms with large hailstones can destroy entire crop fields, even smaller storms with smaller hailstones can critically injure plants, tearing leaves or bruising stems, and thus put a dent in crop yield,” says Dr. Jeffrey Amthor, principal scientist at AIR Worldwide, in a statement.

“AIR’s new crop hail model provides an in-depth understanding of where crop hail damage occurs in Canada and why and how crop damage varies by crop species and developmental stage,” he adds.

Users of AIR’s crop hail model for the U.S. will have an expanded view of North American crop hail risk because the models for Canada and the U.S. leverage the same 10,000-year hail catalog, with a domain that covers the contiguous United States and nine southernmost Canadian provinces.

“The continuity will be particularly useful for insurers and reinsurers that underwrite exposures in both the U.S. and Canada and for brokers that prepare submissions for companies in both countries,” says Amthor. “Although straight hail insurance policies are currently written only for the Canadian Prairie provinces, the model accounts for six other Canadian provinces with crop exposure.”

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